Can Museveni’s NRM Beat Bobi Wine’s NUP in Buganda in 2026?

Flummoxed By Voters in Buganda NRM is Still Struggling to Find Torchbearers, writes Ofwono Opondo

The NRM was drubbed at the 2021 general elections in Buganda during which it lost the presidential vote, and most of its parliamentary and local government seats. Buganda is now a red territory because NUP, Mengo and lower rungs in the Catholic church hammered President Yoweri Museveni and NRM on issues that although false and sensational, mattered to the voters, the claims of exploiting Baganda without giving back visible socio-economic returns.

Busoga too, except Kaliro and Namayingo, turned backs on Museveni, but mostly returned NRM MPs and local governments. Three years on, while not publicly showing disappointment, the NRM is still struggling to find able torchbearers for 2026.

Of 92 MPs in Buganda in the 10th parliament, NRM had 63 (72%) most of them, starting with then Vice President Edward Kiwanuka Ssekandi, Agriculture Minister Vincent Bamulangaki Ssempijja, Government Chief Whip Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu, Amelia Kyambadde, and Judith Nabakooba were guillotined at the polls.

On this heap, piled State ministers Chrysostom Muyingo and Rosemary Sseninde, Haruna Kasolo (Micro-Finance), Dennis Galabuzi Ssozi (Luwero), and Ronald Kibuule (water).

To placate the heavy losses, President Museveni, the chess player, took a cool demeanour and hauled a trove eleven ministerial portfolios to Buganda bringing in unelected Attorney General Kiwanuka Kiryowa, Hajat Minsa Kabanda, Kabuye Kyofatogabye, and Aisha Sekindi. He re-appointed many ministers who had lost elections among them Ssempijja, Nankabirwa, Nabakooba, Kasolo, and Muyingo, while retaining Amos Lugoloobi, the only minister who won re-election.

He also added Gen. Kutumba Wamala (Works and Transport), and Diana Nankunda Mutatsiga (Office of the Vice President). As the NRM counts its political dead, and licking deep wounds, it has not yet, this far understood what really happened, but there have been unsubstantiated claims of vote fraud.  NUP is intoxicated and may need sober reflection to fortify its gains not to lose 2026.

While there are signs of dimming the euphoria that accompanied NUP’s overall political performance, elevated in Buganda, NRM’s times of agony are still ahead. For NRM, these many portfolios and office-bearers have not yet found comfort routing for NRM and Museveni in Buganda, and unlikely to be politically rewarding in 2026.

Traveling through Lango over the past year, accompanied by two by-elections in Oyam and Dokolo, one gets the sense that UPC of Milton Obote although being mocked as ‘dead’, could be on a gradual rise exploiting the old sectarian nostalgia there, and its courtship with NRM needs to be verified. UPC under Jimmy Akena seems to be on a clinical strategy to concentrate its modest resources on winnable seats in its Lango heartland.

If Acholi were to rebel against President Museveni and NRM at the polls in 2026, it could spell headache, even serious troubles. Many, including yours truly, believe that Norbert Mao of DP but now in NRM fold may not hold a steady sail, in any case, he came after being visibly vanquished.

DP and FDC are currently in disarray, although any semblance of tactical political realignment, candidate selection, campaigns and voting could potentially upstage NRM in many places especially Teso, Lango, Acholi, West Nile and Buganda. And with many ministers, MPs, and political surrogates opportunistically courting a nascent PLU yet simultaneously embedded in NRM, many may find themselves outfoxed.

The next one year will be a tiding for political deal-making, first by elements of the opposition who are tired that they have not made it to the top career, and waiting on the wings for President Museveni’s beckon. Then, there are new young rubble-rousers who have learnt from recent make-overs and eager to sit at the top at any cost. So, as 2026 draws ever closer, Ugandans should wait for all the indulgence.

The writer is the government spokesperson

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